毋庸置疑,中国是一个在省级和国家层面都积极采用某种产业政策来促进自身发展的国家。关于使用工业(和贸易)政策是否明智的争论已经进行了几个世纪,尽管中国研究人员以案例研究的形式对此类政策对中国增长和发展可能产生的影响的不同方面做出了很大贡献,但中国研究人员对辩论的理论方面的贡献却很少而且相差甚远,主要是由Justin Y. Lin通过对已故内森·罗森伯格 (Nathan Rosenberg) 的一些作品的考察。他引入的一个关键概念是“技术融合”,在此之前一直存在持续的业务分工,但鉴于从这种划分中获得的操作既发生在公司内部也发生在公司之间以及行业之间,它们最初是“隔离的”,但可以等待被合并和链接在一起。这就是技术融合发生的时候,新公司或现有公司中的新部门可能会取得重大技术突破,如果是这样,就会引发产业组织的巨大变化。从这些新公司/单位辐射出的新的后向和前向生产联系将在经济中得到释放。如果确实考虑了罗森伯格的研究方法,那么它需要研究人员提出的研究问题是什么?需要收集什么样的历史数据?它可以阐明工业和技术发展的哪些方面,以及可能的政策影响?这种方法可能存在哪些限制?
来自西班牙纳瓦拉大学中国研究中心的P. Sai-wing Ho教授将带来他的研究分享。
时间:
丹佛时间:2022年2月16日9:00(北京时间2月17日0:00).
主讲人:
P. Sai-wing Ho,斯坦福大学PhD,曾任美国科罗拉多州丹佛大学经济学教授,他的研究兴趣广泛在于贸易和发展,并深受经济分析史的影响,重点关注东亚和东南亚。 他曾在剑桥经济学杂志、政治经济学评论、政治经济学贡献、Œconomia – History/Methodology/Philosophy、Metroeconomica、Journal of Economic Issues、Forum for Social Economics 和 UN Chronicle,他曾担任大多数期刊的审稿人。 现任中国社会科学院经济研究所期刊《经济思想史简报》编委。
Abstract:
That China is a country that has actively employed some sort of industrial policies to promote its development, at both the provincial and national levels, is a claim that no one will dispute. Debates on the wisdom of using industrial (and trade) policies have been waged for centuries, the latest round of which began with the onset of the Great Recession. While Chinese researchers have contributed much in the form of case studies on different aspects of the possible impact of such policies on China’s growth and development, contributions by Chinese researchers to the theoretical aspect of the debate is few and far between, with the major exception of Justin Y. Lin. Through the examination of some works of the late Nathan Rosenberg, this paper argues that there is an approach to industrial and technology development research, with substantive policy implications, that could be fruitful to adopt. Some aspects of this approach are being championed by Ha-Joon Chang and Antonio Andreoni, two very prominent figures in the latest round of the debate. What they do not seem to realize, however, is that Rosenberg’s works are arguably influenced in important ways by Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Allyn Young, and Albert Hirschman. In short, the approach embodies highly rich and respectable intellectual influence. A key concept that he introduced is ‘technological convergence’, prior to which there has been ongoing division of operations (Smith and Marx). But given that the operations that obtain from such division occur both within and across firms as well as industries, they are initially ‘segregated’ (Young), but could await being joined and linked together (Hirschman). That is when technological convergence occurs, with probable significant technological breakthroughs achieved by new firms or new units in existing firms, and if so, triggers big changes in industrial organizations. New backward and forward production linkages that radiate from those new firms/units will be unleashed in the economy. If a Rosenbergian research approach is indeed considered, then what would be the research questions that it requires the researcher to ask? What kind of historical data would have to be gathered? What aspects of industrial and technology development could it shed light on, with what possible policy implications? And what are the possible limitations of this approach? This paper contains preliminary thoughts.